A Middle Palaeolithic site in the southern North Sea: investigating the archaeology and palaeogeography of Area 240          下载免费PDF全文

L. TIZZARD  A. R. BICKET  J. BENJAMIN  D. DE LOECKER 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(7):698-710

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Inference and uncertainty of snow depth spatial distribution at the kilometre scale in the Colorado Rocky Mountains: the effects of sample size,random sampling,predictor quality,and validation procedures          下载免费PDF全文

J. L. McCreight  A. G. Slater  H. P. Marshall  B. Rajagopalan 《水文研究》2014,28(3):933-957

Historically, observing snow depth over large areas has been difficult. When snow depth observations are sparse, regression models can be used to infer the snow depth over a given area. Data sparsity has also left many important questions about such inference unexamined. Improved inference, or estimation, of snow depth and its spatial distribution from a given set of observations can benefit a wide range of applications from water resource management, to ecological studies, to validation of satellite estimates of snow pack. The development of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology has provided non‐sparse snow depth measurements, which we use in this study, to address fundamental questions about snow depth inference using both sparse and non‐sparse observations. For example, when are more data needed and when are data redundant? Results apply to both traditional and manual snow depth measurements and to LiDAR observations. Through sampling experiments on high‐resolution LiDAR snow depth observations at six separate 1.17‐km² sites in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we provide novel perspectives on a variety of issues affecting the regression estimation of snow depth from sparse observations. We measure the effects of observation count, random selection of observations, quality of predictor variables, and cross‐validation procedures using three skill metrics: percent error in total snow volume, root mean squared error (RMSE), and R². Extremes of predictor quality are used to understand the range of its effect; how do predictors downloaded from internet perform against more accurate predictors measured by LiDAR? Whereas cross validation remains the only option for validating inference from sparse observations, in our experiments, the full set of LiDAR‐measured snow depths can be considered the ‘true’ spatial distribution and used to understand cross‐validation bias at the spatial scale of inference. We model at the 30‐m resolution of readily available predictors, which is a popular spatial resolution in the literature. Three regression models are also compared, and we briefly examine how sampling design affects model skill. Results quantify the primary dependence of each skill metric on observation count that ranges over three orders of magnitude, doubling at each step from 25 up to 3200. Whereas uncertainty (resulting from random selection of observations) in percent error of true total snow volume is typically well constrained by 100–200 observations, there is considerable uncertainty in the inferred spatial distribution (R²) even at medium observation counts (200–800). We show that percent error in total snow volume is not sensitive to predictor quality, although RMSE and R² (measures of spatial distribution) often depend critically on it. Inaccuracies of downloaded predictors (most often the vegetation predictors) can easily require a quadrupling of observation count to match RMSE and R² scores obtained by LiDAR‐measured predictors. Under cross validation, the RMSE and R² skill measures are consistently biased towards poorer results than their true validations. This is primarily a result of greater variance at the spatial scales of point observations used for cross validation than at the 30‐m resolution of the model. The magnitude of this bias depends on individual site characteristics, observation count (for our experimental design), and sampling design. Sampling designs that maximize independent information maximize cross‐validation bias but also maximize true R². The bagging tree model is found to generally outperform the other regression models in the study on several criteria. Finally, we discuss and recommend use of LiDAR in conjunction with regression modelling to advance understanding of snow depth spatial distribution at spatial scales of thousands of square kilometres. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Pre‐ and post‐impoundment nitrogen in the lower Missouri River          下载免费PDF全文

Dale W. Blevins  Donald H. Wilkison  Shelley L. Niesen 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2535-2549

Large water‐sample sets collected from 1899 through 1902, 1907, and in the early 1950s allow comparisons of pre‐impoundment and post‐impoundment (1969 through 2008) nitrogen concentrations in the lower Missouri River. Although urban wastes were not large enough to detectably increase annual loads of total nitrogen at the beginning of the 20^th century, carcass waste, stock‐yard manure, and untreated human wastes measurably increased ammonia and organic‐nitrogen concentrations during low flows. Average total‐nitrogen concentrations in both periods were about 2.5 mg/l, but much of the particulate‐organic nitrogen, which was the dominant form of nitrogen around 1900, has been replaced by nitrate. This change in speciation was caused by the nearly 80% decrease in suspended‐sediment concentrations that occurred after impoundment, modern agriculture, drainage of riparian wetlands, and sewage treatment. Nevertheless, bioavailable nitrogen has not been low enough to limit primary production in the Missouri River since the beginning of the 20^th century. Nitrate concentrations have increased more rapidly from 2000 through 2008 (5 to 12% per year), thus increasing bioavailable nitrogen delivered to the Mississippi River and affecting Gulf Coast hypoxia. The increase in nitrate concentrations with distance downstream is much greater during the post‐impoundment period. If strategies to decrease total‐nitrogen loads focus on particulate N, substantial decreases will be difficult because particulate nitrogen is now only 23% of total nitrogen in the Missouri River. A strategy aimed at decreasing particulates also could further exacerbate land loss along the Gulf of Mexico, which has been sediment starved since Missouri River impoundment. In contrast, strategies or benchmarks aimed at decreasing nitrate loads could substantially decrease nitrogen loadings because nitrates now constitute over half of the Missouri's nitrogen input to the Mississippi. Ongoing restoration and creation of wetlands along the Missouri River could be part of such a nitrate‐reduction strategy. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

Using hydrogeochemical signatures of stream water to assess pathways for rainfall events: towards a predictive model          下载免费PDF全文

J. A. Figueiredo  E. A. Menor  M. T. Taboada‐Castro  M. M. Taboada‐Castro  M. L. Rodríguez‐Blanco  E. S. Braga 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2302-2311

Thanks to its simple division into agricultural and forestry land use, the Corbeira catchment (Galicia, Spain) is used as a case study to build a predictive model using hydrogeochemical signatures. Stream data acquired under recessional flow conditions over a one year period were obtained from a sampling station near the downstream end of the catchment, and using principal component analysis, it is shown that some of the analytical parameters are covariant, and some are negatively correlated. These findings support inferences about the pathways of rainfall in the catchment. Specific signatures may be associated with the dominant hydrological source, either surface runoff or subsurface waters: additionally, the dominant land use in that part of the catchment, where the flow originated, can also be predicted. The dominant runoff shows a strong covariance between suspended solids (SS) and particulate phosphorus (PP), with a clear negative correlation with pH. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) data are associated with this covariant set when these compounds are available in the soils in question. Dissolved phosphorus, total organic nitrogen and dissolved nitrates are also associated with the same covariant set when the runoff flows through areas of extensive agricultural use. The SS ? PP covariance is less significant at lower flows. Typical base flow regimes show a significant covariance between salinity and pH, with a marked negative correlation with SS ? PP set, confirming the dominance of subsurface waters in the baseflow, as expected. Seasonally divergent DOC ? SS behaviour proves to be a useful tracer for rainfall regimes. The DOC trend shows a sinusoidal annual variation in amplitude, determined by the rainfall regime. As a result, flow from the catchment is dominated by surface water whenever there is synchronicity between the peaks of DOC and SS. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States     

Lori J. Wachowicz  Thomas L. Mote  Gina R. Henderson 《自然地理学》2020,41(1):54-69

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.  相似文献   

Natech or natural? An analysis of hazard perceptions,institutional trust,and future storm worry following Hurricane Harvey     

Slack  Tim  Parks  Vanessa  Ayer  Lynsay  Parker  Andrew M.  Finucane  Melissa L.  Ramchand  Rajeev 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1207-1224

Natural Hazards - Researchers have traditionally conceptualized hazards that give rise to disasters as “natural” or “technological.” An extensive literature has documented...  相似文献   

泥水平衡盾构用海水泥浆的改性试验研究     

杨振兴  陈健  孙振川  游永锋  周建军  吕乾乾 《岩土力学》2020,41(2):501-508

由于海水中富集大量可溶性盐类及各种金属离子成分，利用海水配置的海水泥浆具有相对密度大、胶体率低、稳定性差、失水量高等特点，不能满足泥水平衡盾构施工要求。为实现对海水泥浆改性以达到利用海水泥浆维持开挖面稳定，降低穿江越海盾构施工成本，选用CMC（羧甲基纤维素钠）、纤维素PAC（聚阴离子纤维素）、聚丙烯酸铵等8种添加剂进行海水泥浆性质变化试验，优选出对海水泥浆改性明显的添加剂，并分析优选添加剂掺入量和时间对海水泥浆性质的影响规律。同时，基于优选的添加剂CMC，利用泥膜形成试验平台进行改性海水泥浆地层渗透试验。研究表明：不同添加剂对海水泥浆性质变化差异较大，增黏剂PAC、CMC对海水泥浆的改性效果稍好，24 h离析出现浑浊层、混合层、絮凝沉淀层。海水泥浆对地层渗透的滤水量大于改性海水泥浆，泥皮也稍厚，但呈稀疏状态。可以推测，添加剂中和部分海水成分，呈絮凝沉淀，多余添加剂表现出对淡水泥浆的增稠作用。  相似文献   

国外军事地质学热点问题     

李万伦  吕鹏  孟庆奎  王铭晗 《地质论评》2020,66(1):189-196

近年来以美国为代表的西方军事强国在军事地质学领域已取得了很大进展,尤其在应对未来战争方面作了许多准备。通过系统搜集国际军事地球科学会议(ICMG)和美国地质学会(GSA)有关军事地质学的最新专题研讨会论文与其他公开出版资料,梳理了当前国外军事地质学研究的热点问题并阐述了其新进展,其中作战领域包括地形情报研究、军事基地选址、潜在特殊战场环境调查、地下重要设施评价、非常规作战环境调查;非作战领域则包括抢险救灾、生态环境保护和环境安全评价等。最后分析了当前军事地质学研究存在的问题,并指出了其未来发展趋势。  相似文献   

基于卷积神经网的CCTV视频中排水管道缺陷的智能检测     

吕兵  刘玉贤  叶绍泽  闫臻 《测绘通报》2019,(11):103-108

作为地下空间信息测绘工作的一个重要部分，基于排水管道内部测绘信息的管道缺陷检测越来越受到人们的重视。CCTV技术是一种广泛使用的排水管道内部测绘与缺陷检测技术。近些年基于卷积神经网的人工智能技术在图像识别中取得了巨大成功，受此启发，提出了一种基于卷积神经网络的排水管道缺陷的检测方法，以提高CCTV视频中的管道缺陷检测的自动化和智能化。试验证明了该方法的有效性，其在缺陷识别的准确率和召回率及识别速度上均满足了排水管道缺陷智能检测的需要；同时该方法也已经在深圳市的排水管道检测中得到广泛的应用。  相似文献